Sunday, August 17, 2008

Still a Tropical Storm - Fay Advisory Number 8

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Issued at: 10:41 AM EDT 8/17/08 (gateway).


Fay moving west-northwestward south of cuba, new warnings and watches in Florida,

At 11 am edt, 1500 utc, the hurricane watch on the west coast of florida is extended northward to anna maria island. A hurricane watch is in now effect for the Florida keys from south of ocean reef to key west, including the dry tortugas and Florida bay, and along the Florida mainland from card sound bridge westward to anna maria island. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.

A hurricane watch remains in effect for cuba from the provinces of la habana and ciudad de la habana eastward to sancti spiritus.

At 11 am edt, 1500 utc, a tropical storm warning in in effect for the Florida keys from craig key westward to the dry tortugas, including Florida bay. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for cuba from the provinces of la habana and ciudad de la habana eastward to guantanamo, and also for cayman brac and little cayman.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of florida from ocean reef northward to jupiter inlet, and for lake okeechobee. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.

At 11 am edt, 1500 utc, the tropical storm watch is discontinued for the central bahamas.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for jamaica and the cayman islands.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula and the northwestern bahamas should monitor the progress of fay.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 1100 am edt, 1500 utc, the center of tropical storm fay was located near latitude 20.5 north, longitude 78.6 west or about 75 miles, 125 km, southwest of camaguey cuba and about 350 miles, 560 km, southeast of key west Florida.

Fay is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph, 20 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today or tonight, with a turn toward the north expected on Monday. Fay is expected to move near the south coast of cuba today, cross western cuba overnight tonight or Monday morning, and move near the Florida keys Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, 85 km/hr, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and fay could be approaching hurricane strength when it reaches western cuba. Although some weakening is likely as fay crosses cuba, fay is expected to be near hurricane strength as it approaches the florida keys.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles, 165 km from the center. Cabo cruz cuba recently reported a wind gust of 66 mph, 107 km/hr.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb, 29.62 inches.

Tides of 1 to 3 feet above normal are possible in the tropical storm warning area in areas of onshore flow.

Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over much of cuba, jamaica, and the northern cayman islands, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over grand cayman and over the central and southeastern bahamas. Heavy rain may begin to affect the Florida keys and south Florida later today and into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible for the Florida keys and south florida.

Repeating the 1100 am edt position, 20.5 n, 78.6 w. Movement toward, west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 50 mph. Minimum central pressure, 1003 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 200 pm edt followed by the next complete advisory at 500 pm edt.

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